Abstract
Diffusion models can represent complex, multimodal trajectory distributions, but extracting uncertainty from them typically requires costly Monte Carlo sampling. This limits their use in real-time control, where robots must rapidly assess risk and maintain safety margins. We introduce Score-Curvature for Online Precision Estimation (SCOPE), a lightweight module that augments diffusion trajectory models with control-ready uncertainty. SCOPE learns a structured precision matrix around each nominal trajectory by distilling score-curvature information and producing calibrated Gaussian tubes with low overhead and without repeated Monte Carlo sampling. These tubes provide per-timestep covariance estimates that can be used both as predicted occupancy for moving agents and as adaptive exploration guides for robot control. We evaluate SCOPE with mode-conditioned multimodal diffusion backbones in pedestrian forecasting, crowd navigation, Maze2D control, and real-world Franka Panda manipulation. Across these settings, SCOPE provides fast uncertainty estimation, which leads to better closed-loop performance. Project page: https://zackaxue.github.io/SCOPE-project-page/
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Publication details
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- Open access
- Green open access
Cite this article
APA 7
Xue, Z., Kam, J. Y., Qiu, J., Cheng, Y., Gursoy, E., Wang, J., Bonnet, V., & Soh, H. (2026). Control-Ready Uncertainty for Trajectory Diffusion. https://omanscience.com/en/articles/control-ready-uncertainty-for-trajectory-diffusion
MLA 9
Xue, Zhiwei, et al. "Control-Ready Uncertainty for Trajectory Diffusion." https://omanscience.com/en/articles/control-ready-uncertainty-for-trajectory-diffusion.
Chicago (author–date)
Xue, Zhiwei, Jia Yue Kam, Jinhang Qiu, Yifeng Cheng, Ege Gursoy, Jiaming Wang, Vincent Bonnet, and Harold Soh. 2026. "Control-Ready Uncertainty for Trajectory Diffusion." https://omanscience.com/en/articles/control-ready-uncertainty-for-trajectory-diffusion.
Harvard
Xue, Z., Kam, J. Y., Qiu, J., Cheng, Y., Gursoy, E., Wang, J., Bonnet, V. and Soh, H. (2026) 'Control-Ready Uncertainty for Trajectory Diffusion', Available at: https://omanscience.com/en/articles/control-ready-uncertainty-for-trajectory-diffusion.
Vancouver
Xue Z, Kam JY, Qiu J, Cheng Y, Gursoy E, Wang J, et al. Control-Ready Uncertainty for Trajectory Diffusion. https://omanscience.com/en/articles/control-ready-uncertainty-for-trajectory-diffusion
IEEE
Z. Xue, J. Y. Kam, J. Qiu, Y. Cheng, E. Gursoy, J. Wang, V. Bonnet, and H. Soh, "Control-Ready Uncertainty for Trajectory Diffusion," https://omanscience.com/en/articles/control-ready-uncertainty-for-trajectory-diffusion.