Abstract
This article develops a failure-mode framework for analyzing how advanced artificial intelligence could contribute to human extinction, irreversible civilizational collapse, or permanent human disempowerment. The central thesis is that catastrophic AI risk does not require consciousness, hostility, or an explicit intention to harm humanity. Instead, risk may arise through several distinct but interacting pathways, including autonomous misalignment, harmful human use, organizational failure, and competitive deployment. The severity of these pathways depends on factors such as capability, autonomy, external access, persistence, institutional safeguards, and the preservation of recovery capacity. The analysis is deliberately non-operational: it identifies causal conditions, empirically tractable intermediate quantities, and defensive research questions rather than procedures for causing harm.
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Publication details
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- Open access
- Green open access
Cite this article
APA 7
Sienicki, M., & Sienicki, K. (2026). How Could AI Eliminate Humanity? A Failure-Mode Analysis of Civilizational Risk. https://omanscience.com/en/articles/how-could-ai-eliminate-humanity-a-failure-mode-analysis-of-civilizational-risk
MLA 9
Sienicki, Mikołaj, and Krzysztof Sienicki. "How Could AI Eliminate Humanity? A Failure-Mode Analysis of Civilizational Risk." https://omanscience.com/en/articles/how-could-ai-eliminate-humanity-a-failure-mode-analysis-of-civilizational-risk.
Chicago (author–date)
Sienicki, Mikołaj, and Krzysztof Sienicki. 2026. "How Could AI Eliminate Humanity? A Failure-Mode Analysis of Civilizational Risk." https://omanscience.com/en/articles/how-could-ai-eliminate-humanity-a-failure-mode-analysis-of-civilizational-risk.
Harvard
Sienicki, M. and Sienicki, K. (2026) 'How Could AI Eliminate Humanity? A Failure-Mode Analysis of Civilizational Risk', Available at: https://omanscience.com/en/articles/how-could-ai-eliminate-humanity-a-failure-mode-analysis-of-civilizational-risk.
Vancouver
Sienicki M, Sienicki K. How Could AI Eliminate Humanity? A Failure-Mode Analysis of Civilizational Risk. https://omanscience.com/en/articles/how-could-ai-eliminate-humanity-a-failure-mode-analysis-of-civilizational-risk
IEEE
M. Sienicki, and K. Sienicki, "How Could AI Eliminate Humanity? A Failure-Mode Analysis of Civilizational Risk," https://omanscience.com/en/articles/how-could-ai-eliminate-humanity-a-failure-mode-analysis-of-civilizational-risk.