Abstract
Scenario-based MPC is an attractive strategy for chance-constrained motion planning that approximates uncertainty via a finite set of sampled scenarios. As a sampling-based method, scenario-based MPC is sensitive to distribution mismatch. We address this problem in the context of Safe-Horizon Model Predictive Control (SH-MPC) with obstacles governed by switching dynamic modes. From finite mode observations, we construct a confidence set for the unknown categorical mode law and derive a multiplicative domination bound that transfers a Safe-Horizon collision-risk certificate from a selected scenario-sampling distribution to every law in the confidence set. Wasserstein geometry is used to regularize probability reallocation among modes according to the similarity of their induced trajectory predictions, while a collision-risk surrogate biases sampling toward dangerous modes. The resulting certificate explicitly quantifies the additional tightening required under distribution mismatch and exposes the multiplicative conservatism that arises when several obstacle-wise transfer factors are combined
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Publication details
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Cite this article
APA 7
Crawford, S., & Ayanian, N. (2026). Distribution-Transfer Safe-Horizon MPC under Mode Uncertainty. https://omanscience.com/en/articles/distribution-transfer-safe-horizon-mpc-under-mode-uncertainty
MLA 9
Crawford, Stephen, and Nora Ayanian. "Distribution-Transfer Safe-Horizon MPC under Mode Uncertainty." https://omanscience.com/en/articles/distribution-transfer-safe-horizon-mpc-under-mode-uncertainty.
Chicago (author–date)
Crawford, Stephen, and Nora Ayanian. 2026. "Distribution-Transfer Safe-Horizon MPC under Mode Uncertainty." https://omanscience.com/en/articles/distribution-transfer-safe-horizon-mpc-under-mode-uncertainty.
Harvard
Crawford, S. and Ayanian, N. (2026) 'Distribution-Transfer Safe-Horizon MPC under Mode Uncertainty', Available at: https://omanscience.com/en/articles/distribution-transfer-safe-horizon-mpc-under-mode-uncertainty.
Vancouver
Crawford S, Ayanian N. Distribution-Transfer Safe-Horizon MPC under Mode Uncertainty. https://omanscience.com/en/articles/distribution-transfer-safe-horizon-mpc-under-mode-uncertainty
IEEE
S. Crawford, and N. Ayanian, "Distribution-Transfer Safe-Horizon MPC under Mode Uncertainty," https://omanscience.com/en/articles/distribution-transfer-safe-horizon-mpc-under-mode-uncertainty.