Abstract
Tabular foundation models (TFMs) provide predictive distributions for regression, but their prediction regions can exhibit undercoverage or overcoverage even when point predictions are accurate. We introduce C-USIM (Conditionally-Uniformized Score Integration Method), a lightweight application of highest predictive density split conformal prediction that accommodates multimodal predictions. Given calibration and test outputs, it requires no additional training or model inference. It provides finite-sample marginal validity under our assumptions. We bound conditional-marginal coverage gaps using distribution-estimation error and score discreteness, and examine coverage heterogeneity through percentile rank-score plots. Experiments with TabPFN and TabICL show improved marginal coverage accuracy and lower average conditional and group coverage errors. Under a fixed data budget, allocating more observations to calibration can reduce marginal coverage error despite less accurate point predictions.
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Publication details
- Journal
- Not available
- Open access
- Green open access
Cite this article
APA 7
Park, S., Park, S., & Chang, W. (2026). Conformal Prediction and Conditional Coverage for Tabular Foundation Models. https://omanscience.com/en/articles/conformal-prediction-and-conditional-coverage-for-tabular-foundation-models
MLA 9
Park, Sungwoo, et al. "Conformal Prediction and Conditional Coverage for Tabular Foundation Models." https://omanscience.com/en/articles/conformal-prediction-and-conditional-coverage-for-tabular-foundation-models.
Chicago (author–date)
Park, Sungwoo, Sunghee Park, and Won Chang. 2026. "Conformal Prediction and Conditional Coverage for Tabular Foundation Models." https://omanscience.com/en/articles/conformal-prediction-and-conditional-coverage-for-tabular-foundation-models.
Harvard
Park, S., Park, S. and Chang, W. (2026) 'Conformal Prediction and Conditional Coverage for Tabular Foundation Models', Available at: https://omanscience.com/en/articles/conformal-prediction-and-conditional-coverage-for-tabular-foundation-models.
Vancouver
Park S, Park S, Chang W. Conformal Prediction and Conditional Coverage for Tabular Foundation Models. https://omanscience.com/en/articles/conformal-prediction-and-conditional-coverage-for-tabular-foundation-models
IEEE
S. Park, S. Park, and W. Chang, "Conformal Prediction and Conditional Coverage for Tabular Foundation Models," https://omanscience.com/en/articles/conformal-prediction-and-conditional-coverage-for-tabular-foundation-models.