الملخص
Deploying model predictive control (MPC) requires constructing or identifying a predictive model for each target system. Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) offer an attractive option thanks to strong zero-shot forecasting capabilities across systems. However, low forecast error does not guarantee that a TSFM captures the system's response to the alternative actions considered by the controller. We study this gap using residential heat-pump control as a test bed, measuring the agreement between predicted and ground-truth effects of control interventions. Importantly, we find that TSFMs can recover the system's input-response relationship when the context contains sufficient independent control excitation. Common fine-tuning pipelines and feature smoothing reduce, but do not eliminate, the need for in-context excitation. Our results indicate that current TSFMs used for predictive control require sufficiently informative control variation in the inference context. Initial closed-loop results show promise for shorter context windows.
الكلمات المفتاحية
الموضوع
بيانات النشر
- المجلة
- غير متاح
- وصول مفتوح
- وصول مفتوح أخضر
اقتبس هذه المقالة
APA 7
Amria, M., Hoffmann, J., Bordne, P., Rothenhäusler, A., Frison, L., Walnum, H. T., Gros, S., & Bödecker, J. (2026). Time-series Foundation Models for Predictive Control: The Role of Excitation. https://omanscience.com/ar/articles/time-series-foundation-models-for-predictive-control-the-role-of-excitation
MLA 9
Amria, Mazen, et al. "Time-series Foundation Models for Predictive Control: The Role of Excitation." https://omanscience.com/ar/articles/time-series-foundation-models-for-predictive-control-the-role-of-excitation.
شيكاغو (المؤلف–التاريخ)
Amria, Mazen, Jasper Hoffmann, Philipp Bordne, Anna Rothenhäusler, Lilli Frison, Harald Taxt Walnum, Sebastien Gros, and Joschka Bödecker. 2026. "Time-series Foundation Models for Predictive Control: The Role of Excitation." https://omanscience.com/ar/articles/time-series-foundation-models-for-predictive-control-the-role-of-excitation.
هارفارد
Amria, M., Hoffmann, J., Bordne, P., Rothenhäusler, A., Frison, L., Walnum, H. T., Gros, S. and Bödecker, J. (2026) 'Time-series Foundation Models for Predictive Control: The Role of Excitation', Available at: https://omanscience.com/ar/articles/time-series-foundation-models-for-predictive-control-the-role-of-excitation.
فانكوفر
Amria M, Hoffmann J, Bordne P, Rothenhäusler A, Frison L, Walnum HT, et al. Time-series Foundation Models for Predictive Control: The Role of Excitation. https://omanscience.com/ar/articles/time-series-foundation-models-for-predictive-control-the-role-of-excitation
IEEE
M. Amria, J. Hoffmann, P. Bordne, A. Rothenhäusler, L. Frison, H. T. Walnum, S. Gros, and J. Bödecker, "Time-series Foundation Models for Predictive Control: The Role of Excitation," https://omanscience.com/ar/articles/time-series-foundation-models-for-predictive-control-the-role-of-excitation.