[
    {
        "id": "osp-19541",
        "type": "article-journal",
        "title": "S2S-JEPA: Predicting the Predictable at Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales",
        "author": [
            {
                "family": "Dong",
                "given": "Chenyu"
            },
            {
                "family": "Mengaldo",
                "given": "Gianmarco"
            }
        ],
        "URL": "https://omanscience.com/ar/articles/s2s-jepa-predicting-the-predictable-at-subseasonal-to-seasonal-timescales",
        "language": "en",
        "issued": {
            "date-parts": [
                [
                    2026
                ]
            ]
        },
        "abstract": "The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale, roughly from two weeks to two months ahead, is a critical forecast window for sectors such as agriculture, energy, and water management. Yet, it is widely known as the `predictability desert'. Recent AI weather models excel up to two weeks ahead but deteriorate beyond, largely because they are trained to predict fine-scale details that are neither predictable nor essential at S2S timescales. We argue that a more physically grounded objective is to forecast only the slowly varying components that remain predictable. Computer vision reached the same conclusion with the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA), which predicts in latent space, discarding unpredictable details. In this work, we introduce S2S-JEPA, which brings the JEPA paradigm to S2S forecasting. It is tailored to this task through design elements from state-of-the-art AI weather models. S2S-JEPA achieves comparable skill to the gold-standard ECMWF physics-based ensemble and surpasses it on multiple metrics at weeks 5 to 6."
    }
]